Beyond Uplift: Why Retailers Must Evolve Promotion Evaluation

Promotions are one of retail’s most powerful levers—but also one of its most misunderstood. For decades, success has been measured with blunt tools: sales uplift, units sold, and gross profit on the promoted SKU. These metrics are easy to calculate, but they tell only part of the story. In an era of razor-thin margins and fragile loyalty, this narrow view isn’t just insufficient—it’s dangerous. 

The truth is simple: retailers are leaving millions on the table by clinging to outdated methods. It’s time to move from Type 1 evaluation – basic, SKU-centric—to Type 2 evaluation, which reveals what truly matters: shopper behavior, category dynamics, and store-level impact. 

Type 1 Promotion Evaluation: The Old World 

Type 1 measures what happened: 

• Sales uplift 

• Units sold uplift 

• Gross profit uplift 

But only for the promoted SKU(s) in isolation, and in aggregate. This approach ignores critical questions such as; 

• Did the promotion bring shoppers to the store—or just shift spend between SKUs? 

• Did shoppers increase overall basket value—or buy only the discounted item? 

• Did we grow loyalty—or just pay shoppers to buy the same product cheaper? 

Type 1 measures the tree, not the forest. If you measure only sales uplift, you may think the promotion worked. If you measure incrementality, you know if the promotion was worth it. 

Type 2 Promotion Evaluation: The New Standard 

Type 2 tells you what mattered—and explains why and better informs what to do next time. It’s not just the new standard; it’s the foundation for AI-led promotion optimization. 

Shopper-Level Insights 

• How many shoppers engaged with the promotion? 

• Did we attract new and lapsed shoppers—and what is their long-term value? 

• How many of these shoppers returned? 

Category-Level Impact 

• Did the promotion grow the category overall—or merely cannibalize other SKUs? 

• Was category growth driven by existing shoppers or new entrants? 

Store-Level Impact 

• Did we grow entire store spend when the promo SKU was found in the basket? 

• Did we attract new shoppers to the store? 

Behavioral & Strategic Dimensions 

• Incremental spend in other categories (halo effect). 

• Basket composition changes. 

• Long-term shopper value beyond the promo. 

This is not just measurement—it’s intelligence. It transforms promotions from blunt instruments into precision tools for growth. 

Comparison: Type 1 vs. Type

2 Dimension	Type 1 (Simple)	Type 2 (Advanced)
Scope	Promoted SKU only	SKU + Category + Store
Metrics	Sales uplift, units, margin	Shopper behavior, category impact, store impact
Customer Insights	None	New shoppers, profiles, segments, this promo shopper vs our regular shopper
Strategic Value	Low	High - guides future promotions
True ROI	Partial	Comprehensive
Describes	What happened	Why it happened and what to do next

Why This Matters Now 

Retail is entering an AI-first era where data-driven decisions separate winners from laggards. Promotions are too expensive – and too strategic – to measure with blunt tools. Type 2 evaluation enables: 

• Smarter targeting (know which shoppers respond and why). 

• Better ROI (understand halo effects and long-term value). 

• Category and store growth (not just SKU uplift). 

Retailers who embrace this shift will turn promotions into engines of profitability and loyalty. Those who don’t will keep guessing – and potentially keep losing. 

Call to Action 

If your promotion evaluation still looks like Type 1, it’s time to evolve. The tools exist. The data exists. The question is: will you lead, or will you lag? 

Appendix: An Example of a Type 2 Evaluation 

What we can see here… 

How the Promo SKUs Performed 

• The regular stuff we’d expect, plus: 

• How many new shoppers were brought to the promoted SKU. 

• What these new shoppers spent. 

How the Promo Shoppers Spent Elsewhere 

• Did the promotion grow the wider category? 

• Did the promotion grow entire store spend? 

New Shopper Attraction & Quality 

• How many new shoppers were attracted to the category? 

• How many new shoppes were attracted to the store? 

• What did they spend respectively?