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MERCHANDISING · PROMOTION EVALUATION
How to tell if a retail promotion actually worked
A promotion worked if it added incremental gross profit, not just units. That means measuring it against a clean baseline, then checking for cannibalization, pull-forward and new shoppers. 11Ants does this in minutes: ask Ant whether a promotion was incremental, and it returns the uplift, the margin impact and what happened to the rest of the category.
THE CHALLENGE
Why is it so hard to know if a promotion worked?
Most promotions are judged one SKU at a time against their own volume target. Did we sell more than last time? Yes, so it’s called a win. That view misses whether the volume came from new shoppers or loyal ones stocking up, and whether the category grew or the volume just moved inside it.
The cost adds up. For a representative $2 billion grocer at 25% gross margin, with 20% of sales on promotion at a 25% average discount, promotional margin investment is roughly $87 million a year. At that scale, improving promotional effectiveness by one percentage point is worth around $800,000 in gross profit.
None of this is a category manager competence problem. Category managers are measured on their own category, and they can’t manage a number they’ve never been able to see.
THE SOLUTION
How does 11Ants
evaluate a promotion?
11Ants reads the promotion against your loyalty and POS data and answers in four steps.
Ant gives category managers a fast answer in plain English. For deeper, repeatable review, the Promotion Evaluation, Promotion Portfolio and Promotional Scoring by Store modules show every promotion in detail, with visualizations built for promotion analysis.
Set the baseline
Ant compares the promotion period with a baseline that accounts for seasonality and prior-period sales, so the uplift is measured against what you would have sold anyway.
Measure true uplift
Ant reports incremental units, revenue and gross margin, and separates on-promotion sales from clearance.
Check the category and basket
Ant shows cannibalization, share shifts within the category and changes in basket size and store traffic.
Look at the shoppers
Ant reports new shoppers acquired, repeat rates and post-promotion spend, so you can see whether the promotion changed behavior.
EXAMPLE QUESTION TO ASK ANT
QUESTION
Was the growth in this category promotion-supported or genuinely incremental?
WHAT ANT RETURNS
[Insert a real Ant answer from demo data. It should state the incremental versus promoted share of growth, the gross margin impact, any cannibalization found, and a suggested next step, with the demo-data disclaimer.]
See Ant evaluate a promotion
Demonstration data; brand names are illustrative.
What results do retailers see?
CASE STUDY
118%
increase in units sold
Farm Source, New Zealand: 118% increase in units sold
New Zealand’s largest rural supplies retailer (65 stores) used 11Ants to promote alongside companion and flank products and reposition them in store.
11Ants has increased my efficiency, I don’t have to contact business intelligence for every matter – I’m more independent.
Ambrož Rozman
Category Manager, Mercator
In a fast-changing environment it’s really important to have instantaneous decisions. I think 11Ants has improved our business significantly.
Andreja Možina
Director of Loyalty & CRM, Mercator
Promotion evaluation FAQ
What is an incremental promotion?
An incremental promotion generates sales and gross profit you wouldn’t have made without it. To measure it, compare the promotion period against a baseline of expected sales, then subtract volume that was cannibalized from other products or pulled forward from future weeks.
How do you measure promotion cannibalization?
Cannibalization is measured by tracking what happened to sales of related products in the same category during the promotion. If a promoted item gains volume while similar items lose it, part of the uplift is shifted volume. 11Ants reports this automatically at category and store level.
What is a promotion’s break-even point?
Every discount is also applied to units you would have sold anyway. A promotion’s break-even point is the incremental lift it needs to cover that cost. Below that level it can’t pay for itself, however strong the sell-through looks.
Can 11Ants evaluate a whole campaign or mailer, not just one SKU?
Yes. 11Ants evaluates single SKUs, brands, promotional groups and whole events such as mailers and themed campaigns. It also compares performance across periods and stores.
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